Results/Incumbency Results
ECI results
Analysis · representation

Do incumbents survive?

PUNJAB, 1962–2019. 15 elections tracked.

All IndiaANDHRA PRADESHARUNACHAL PRADESHASSAMBIHARCHHATTISGARHDAMAN AND DIUDELHIGOAGUJARATHARYANAHIMACHAL PRADESHJAMMU AND KASHMIRJHARKHANDKARNATAKAKERALAMADHYA PRADESHMAHARASHTRAMANIPURMEGHALAYAMIZORAMNAGALANDODISHAPUDUCHERRYPUNJABRAJASTHANSIKKIMTAMIL NADUTELANGANATRIPURAUTTAR PRADESHUTTARAKHANDWEST BENGAL
Incumbent re-election
44.44
2019 · 4 of 9
Incumbents contesting
69.23
9 of 13 seats
First-time winners
38.46
5 new faces
Turncoats
6
0 won · strike rate 0.0%
Vs previous
+6.94pp
From 37.5% in 2014

[01]Incumbent re-election rate

Share of sitting MPs/MLAs who won again, 1962–2019
  1. 2019
    44.44%
  2. 2014
    37.5%
  3. 2009
    50.0%
  4. 2004
    33.33%
  5. 1999
    25.0%
  6. 1998
    62.5%
  7. 1996
    33.33%
  8. 1992
    50.0%
  9. 1989
    25.0%
  10. 1985
    80.0%
  11. 1980
    0.0%
  12. 1977
    0.0%
  13. 1971
    83.33%
  14. 1967
    100.0%
  15. 1962
    0.0%

[02]First-time winners

Share of winners entering parliament/assembly for the first time
  1. 2019
    38.46%
  2. 2014
    53.85%
  3. 2009
    53.85%
  4. 2004
    61.54%
  5. 1999
    23.08%
  6. 1998
    30.77%
  7. 1996
    53.85%
  8. 1992
    61.54%
  9. 1989
    84.62%
  10. 1985
    53.85%
  11. 1980
    61.54%
  12. 1977
    69.23%
  13. 1971
    61.54%
  14. 1967
    69.23%
  15. 1962
    100.0%

[03]Turncoats over time

Candidates who switched parties between elections
2019 6 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
2014 4 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
2009 5 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
2004 6 turncoats1 won (16.67%)
1999 2 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1998 1 turncoats1 won (100.0%)
1996 2 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1992 2 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1989 7 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1985 1 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1980 4 turncoats0 won (0.0%)
1977 2 turncoats2 won (100.0%)
1971 1 turncoats1 won (100.0%)

[04]Incumbents contesting

How many sitting members sought re-election
2019 9 contesting4 won · 44.44% strike rate
2014 8 contesting3 won · 37.5% strike rate
2009 8 contesting4 won · 50.0% strike rate
2004 9 contesting3 won · 33.33% strike rate
1999 12 contesting3 won · 25.0% strike rate
1998 8 contesting5 won · 62.5% strike rate
1996 9 contesting3 won · 33.33% strike rate
1992 4 contesting2 won · 50.0% strike rate
1989 8 contesting2 won · 25.0% strike rate
1985 5 contesting4 won · 80.0% strike rate
1980 5 contesting0 won · 0.0% strike rate
1977 8 contesting0 won · 0.0% strike rate
1971 6 contesting5 won · 83.33% strike rate
1967 4 contesting4 won · 100.0% strike rate

[05]Computed insights

Arithmetic over the tables above, not commentary

  1. The 2019 incumbent re-election rate of 44.44% is above the historical average of 41.6%.

    44.44% vs avg 41.6%

  2. The strongest anti-incumbency wave was in 1980 — only 0.0% of incumbents survived (0 of 5).

    Lowest: 1980 at 0.0%

  3. Incumbents fared best in 1967 with a 100.0% re-election rate (4 of 4).

    Highest: 1967 at 100.0%

  4. 5 winners in 2019 (38.46%) entered parliament/assembly for the first time.

    5 first-time winners in 2019

  5. Party-switching peaked in 1989 with 7 turncoats, of whom 0 won (0.0% strike rate).

    Peak: 7 turncoats in 1989
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