Analysis · representation

Do incumbents survive?

GOA, 1989–2019. 9 elections tracked.

Incumbent re-election

50.0

2019 · 1 of 2

Incumbents contesting

100.0

2 of 2 seats

First-time winners

0.0

0 new faces

Turncoats

0 won · strike rate 0.0%

Vs previous

-50.0pp

From 100.0% in 2014

[01]Incumbent re-election rate

Share of sitting MPs/MLAs who won again, 1989–2019

Share of winners entering parliament/assembly for the first time

Candidates who switched parties between elections

2014 1 turncoats0 won (0.0%)

2009 2 turncoats0 won (0.0%)

2004 1 turncoats1 won (100.0%)

1999 1 turncoats0 won (0.0%)

1996 2 turncoats0 won (0.0%)

1991 2 turncoats0 won (0.0%)

How many sitting members sought re-election

2019 2 contesting1 won · 50.0% strike rate

2014 1 contesting1 won · 100.0% strike rate

2009 2 contesting2 won · 100.0% strike rate

2004 2 contesting1 won · 50.0% strike rate

1998 2 contesting0 won · 0.0% strike rate

1996 1 contesting0 won · 0.0% strike rate

1991 2 contesting1 won · 50.0% strike rate

1989 2 contesting1 won · 50.0% strike rate

Arithmetic over the tables above, not commentary

The 2019 incumbent re-election rate of 50.0% is above the historical average of 44.4%.
50.0% vs avg 44.4%
The strongest anti-incumbency wave was in 1999 — only 0.0% of incumbents survived (0 of 0).
Lowest: 1999 at 0.0%
Incumbents fared best in 2014 with a 100.0% re-election rate (1 of 1).
Highest: 2014 at 100.0%
0 winners in 2019 (0.0%) entered parliament/assembly for the first time.
0 first-time winners in 2019
Party-switching peaked in 2009 with 2 turncoats, of whom 0 won (0.0% strike rate).
Peak: 2 turncoats in 2009