Results/Incumbency Results
ECI results
Analysis · representation

Do incumbents survive?

UTTAR PRADESH, 1962–2019. 15 elections tracked.

All IndiaANDHRA PRADESHARUNACHAL PRADESHASSAMBIHARCHHATTISGARHDAMAN AND DIUDELHIGOAGUJARATHARYANAHIMACHAL PRADESHJAMMU AND KASHMIRJHARKHANDKARNATAKAKERALAMADHYA PRADESHMAHARASHTRAMANIPURMEGHALAYAMIZORAMNAGALANDODISHAPUDUCHERRYPUNJABRAJASTHANSIKKIMTAMIL NADUTELANGANATRIPURAUTTAR PRADESHUTTARAKHANDWEST BENGAL
Incumbent re-election
69.49
2019 · 41 of 59
Incumbents contesting
73.75
59 of 80 seats
First-time winners
25.0
20 new faces
Turncoats
41
11 won · strike rate 26.83%
Vs previous
+42.82pp
From 26.67% in 2014

[01]Incumbent re-election rate

Share of sitting MPs/MLAs who won again, 1962–2019
  1. 2019
    69.49%
  2. 2014
    26.67%
  3. 2009
    35.94%
  4. 2004
    44.62%
  5. 1999
    47.95%
  6. 1998
    55.84%
  7. 1996
    48.28%
  8. 1991
    39.39%
  9. 1989
    32.76%
  10. 1984
    49.02%
  11. 1980
    26.56%
  12. 1977
    6.9%
  13. 1971
    76.0%
  14. 1967
    86.49%
  15. 1962
    0.0%

[02]First-time winners

Share of winners entering parliament/assembly for the first time
  1. 2019
    25.0%
  2. 2014
    50.0%
  3. 2009
    46.25%
  4. 2004
    28.75%
  5. 1999
    20.0%
  6. 1998
    23.53%
  7. 1996
    45.88%
  8. 1991
    44.05%
  9. 1989
    32.94%
  10. 1984
    48.24%
  11. 1980
    47.06%
  12. 1977
    63.53%
  13. 1971
    45.88%
  14. 1967
    56.47%
  15. 1962
    100.0%

[03]Turncoats over time

Candidates who switched parties between elections
2019 41 turncoats11 won (26.83%)
2014 58 turncoats11 won (18.97%)
2009 60 turncoats8 won (13.33%)
2004 58 turncoats13 won (22.41%)
1999 46 turncoats5 won (10.87%)
1998 43 turncoats5 won (11.63%)
1996 78 turncoats16 won (20.51%)
1991 52 turncoats13 won (25.0%)
1989 52 turncoats34 won (65.38%)
1984 67 turncoats11 won (16.42%)
1980 86 turncoats27 won (31.4%)
1977 33 turncoats29 won (87.88%)
1971 23 turncoats6 won (26.09%)
1967 4 turncoats2 won (50.0%)

[04]Incumbents contesting

How many sitting members sought re-election
2019 59 contesting41 won · 69.49% strike rate
2014 60 contesting16 won · 26.67% strike rate
2009 64 contesting23 won · 35.94% strike rate
2004 65 contesting29 won · 44.62% strike rate
1999 73 contesting35 won · 47.95% strike rate
1998 77 contesting43 won · 55.84% strike rate
1996 58 contesting28 won · 48.28% strike rate
1991 66 contesting26 won · 39.39% strike rate
1989 58 contesting19 won · 32.76% strike rate
1984 51 contesting25 won · 49.02% strike rate
1980 64 contesting17 won · 26.56% strike rate
1977 58 contesting4 won · 6.9% strike rate
1971 50 contesting38 won · 76.0% strike rate
1967 37 contesting32 won · 86.49% strike rate

[05]Computed insights

Arithmetic over the tables above, not commentary

  1. The 2019 incumbent re-election rate of 69.49% is above the historical average of 43.1%.

    69.49% vs avg 43.1%

  2. The strongest anti-incumbency wave was in 1962 — only 0.0% of incumbents survived (0 of 0).

    Lowest: 1962 at 0.0%

  3. Incumbents fared best in 1967 with a 86.49% re-election rate (32 of 37).

    Highest: 1967 at 86.49%

  4. 20 winners in 2019 (25.0%) entered parliament/assembly for the first time.

    20 first-time winners in 2019

  5. Party-switching peaked in 1980 with 86 turncoats, of whom 27 won (31.4% strike rate).

    Peak: 86 turncoats in 1980
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